Democrats in Disarray? Can Scott Brown Really End “HOPE & CHANGE”?

On January 20, 2010, Obama will officially be President of the United States for one year.  And what a year it has been for the “messiah.”  He has done something that most political pundits would never have dreamed was possible if you told them on January 20, 2009.  On that day, Obama was making his inauguration speech in front of hundreds of thousands of cheering supporters chanting in union “Yes, We Can.”  To all the members of the “political class,” it looked like the country was embracing the Democratic Party and liberalism.  They were bracing for an FDR-like domination of the politics for the forseeable future.  Democratic pundit James Carville even predicted that his party would be in power for the next 40 years.  Now, amazingly, on the 364 day of the Obama presidency, the Democrats may lose Ted Kennedy’s Senate Seat (now known as the People’s Seat) to little known Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown.  Wow, what a difference a year makes.  Its the political equivalency of the Yankees going from a World Series title to being the laughingstock of baseball in one year.

This Obama guy is talented…huh.  Let’s first take a look at what a Scott Brown win in Massachusetts would mean to the political landscape, then let’s see if he can really WIN!  I can’t believe I am writing a blog entry about how a Republican can win in a Senate seat in Massachusetts.  A Massachusetts Republican hasn’t been elected to the Senate since Richard Nixon’s first term as president in 1972.  It’s like the Royals or Pirates winning the World Series next year.  Amazing!  Or the Red Sox finally winning the World Series (Yes, that happened…so their is HOPE).  If Scott Brown wins on Tuesday, defeating Democratic Candidate Martha Coakley, then you will see what I am labeling “Democrats in Disarray.”  Right now the Dems are holding up a unified fight against the GOP  behind an unpopular Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, sure-to-lose-in-2010 Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (especially after his “light-skinned” racist comments about the President), and President Obama, who has continued his steady decline in the polls which began this past summer.  The latest Quinnipiac poll has his approval rating at an all-time low of 45%.  Democrats are holding firm, because they are so close to getting a major overhaul of health care passed, which they have been trying to do since FDR’s presidency.  Even though health care is hovering around 40 percent in approval, Democrats are still willing to pass it with a party line vote and take their chances in 2010.  However, if Massachusetts falls, then everything changes.

If Scott Brown were to win this seat in Massachusetts, it gives the Democrats only 59 votes in the Senate, which breaks up their super majority, and allows the Republicans to filibuster a bill after it comes out of conference committee between Democratic House and Senate leaders.  With Brown’s public statements indicating that he would vote against “Obamacare,” I see no chance of the bill passing.  This leaves the Democrats with a major policy loss, and President Obama with a year where he has no major legislative achievements to speak of.  That should do wonders for his approval ratings and it will cause the Democratic Party to enter a time period of “disarray.”

We saw this among Republicans in 2006, where George W. Bush become a “dirty” word among the GOP and they began to sprint away from the President as fast as they could.  I’d expect the same thing from Democrats and and their reactions to Obama.  If health care reform fails, then Democrats wouldn’t be able to display any major policy achievements to the voters in November.  If Martha Coakley loses in the “bluest of blue” states in Massachusetts with New Jersey & Virginia, who gave Obama comfortable wins in 2008, also turning red, then the Dems are in big trouble.  Democrats will start to conclude that they are toast politically if they stay the course with the Obama, Reid, & Pelosi’s agenda and they will begin to abandon them in droves.  This will lead to a Democratic Party that has no central message to the voters come November, and it could lead to the GOP taking over the House in 2010, as they did in 1994. The fact that Scott Brown even has fighting chance in Massachusetts shows that the Dems are poised to lose seats in both chambers come the fall.  But this can turn from a “bad” year for Dems to “catastrophic.”  If the Dems lose the House, President Obama will have to cancel his plans for a ‘rebirth” of the “Great Society,” and instead work with the GOP that he famously told during the first days of his presidency “We won, we write the bill.”  I assume the GOP will say the same to him.  This would turn Obama into “lame duck” president, as Bill Clinton was characterized in 1994.  However, Bill Clinton was one of the most-talent politicians to ever sit in the Oval Office.  He suffered major personal and professional scandals along with a thumping in his first midterm election, only to stay in office for two terms and leave office with over a 60% approval rating.  President Obama came in with nearly a 70% approval rating, and has already lost 1/3 of that support without any major gaffes.  The political skills of Obama surely will be tested if he has to deal with a split legislature and a very polarized Washington, D.C.  So the era of “change” that the media was championing, could turn into political “gridlock” for the next two years.  Sound familiar.  So much for the 40 year Democratic Majority.

Now for the big question: Does Scott Brown really has a chance to win in Massachusetts?  The answer is YES, I think.  The latest polls out in the Massachusetts Special Election are very favorable to Scott Brown.  Brown leads by an astounding 15 points in the Pajamas Media/Cross Target poll and is up 4 points in the Suffolk/7 News poll released last night.  An internal poll from the Martha Coakley campaign has her trailing 47-44.  The Democrats are scared to death of losing in Massachusetts, and that is why they are sending in the heavy artillery: former President Bill Clinton and President Barack Obama.  However, a lot of pundits think that might not be enough, because Democrats are not likely to turnout.  A lot of far left Democrats are upset with Obama over his decision to expand troop levels in Afghanistan, and don’t want to support a candidate who has run a horrible race and provides little to get excited about.  I feel that the polls are heading Scott Brown’s way, but the race can still go either way.  If I had to pick a winner now, I say Scott Brown wins 49-48 in a nailbiter.  If that happens, then it is the end of “HOPE & CHANGE.”  President Obama loses his chance to reform health care, as Democrats will not to associated their name with a bill that is so unpopular with the American public.  Now, President Obama will appear just as beaten and worn as President Bush.  Chalk up another win for the greatest political system in the world.  Just when you think you got it beat, it knocks you down a peg.  I LOVE AMERICA!  Thank you Founders!

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