Nov

2009 Election Day Preview: Can It Be A Sweep For The GOP?

On the night before election day, there is good feeling rising among conservatives who feel like it will be a good night for candidates. After losing the presidency in a blowout and watching Democrats reach 60 seats in the Senate in last year’s election, Republicans are itching for payback tomorrow. They have had to deal with an administration that has increased the national debt, passed a nearly $900 trillion stimulus, and is on the verge of passing a health care entitlement that will give government control of 1/6 of the nation’s economy. The opposition towards these policies and administration have voiced their dissatisfaction in tea parties and town halls throughout the spring and summer. Now it is time to see whether their is a burgeoning conservative movement building momentum for a GOP wave election in 2010, or a split decison among voters in New York, New Jersey, & Virginia.

However…that underscores the central point of these elections being held tomorrow. The key to conservative wins, and dare I say solid victories, in tomorrow’s contests is providing a halt to Pres. Obama’s agenda to increase government control over the private sector. According to several reports, House Majority leader Nancy Pelosi is planning to stage a vote on her Health Care Reform bill later this week. It is a vote that could lead Democrats one step closer to passing a public option through Congress. This is why conservatives and independents must come out in droves tomorrow to show their opposition toward the Democrats big government takeover of America. If voters in New Jersey elect Chris Christie their next governor, Bob McDonnell blows out Creigh Deeds as expected, and Doug Hoffman wins big in NY-23 special congressional election, then Blue Dog Democrats will start to tremble. Blue Dogs in conservative districts will be terrified to stand in lock step with the agenda of Pres. Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. They will tell this power hungry threesome “thanks, but no thanks” on health care and cap & trade.

Under 24 hours until to the polls close in these pivotal races, it looks more and more likely that conservatives will go 3 for 3 in these races. Bob McDonnell has been up double-digits for several weeks in Virginia gubernatorial race and Pres. Obama has not shown his full support for Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds. Today two polls were released, with Public Policy Polling having McDonnell up 14 points and Survey USA giving the GOP candidate a 18 point lead. These are shocking numbers, due to the fact that Pres. Obama won Virginia last year. Even though Virginia often elects a governor opposite to the party in control of the White House, it is still disappointing to the administration to see Virginians give the GOP candidate a potential rousing win.

The race that has gotten the most exposure over the past few days is the NY-23 special election. On Saturday, Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the race, claiming that she was not able to raise the proper funds to make her competitive. Instead, many Republicans choose to throw their support to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. He is pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and against Democratic initiatives such as the stimulus, a health care public option, and card check, all of which Scozzafava supports. Famous conservatives such as Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, & Sean Hannity all put their support behind Hoffman, causing conservative grassroots activists out of the district to donate a ton of money to his campaign. With Scozzafava out of the race, conservatives greatest fear of Democrat Bill Owens winning the seat due to a GOP civil war will not occur. The latest polls are very disparate, as Doug Hoffman enjoys a 17 point lead in the Public Policy Poling poll, but only a five point lead (w/ 18% undecided) in Siena Poll. Perhaps a late shift may be going towards Bill Owens after Dede Scozzafava endorsed his candidacy and is making robocalls on his behalf. However, most pundits believe Doug Hoffman will pull out the win. If Hoffman wins in NY-23, it shows the power of the conservative grassroots to organize and mobilitze to win a race. In a district that voted for Obama by 5 points last year, a hard line conservative may win this election in a landslide. It shows that liberal candidates on fiscal policy will not garner Republican support in 2010. Social moderates still have a place in the GOP, but any Republican who supports Obama’s big government initiatives will not have a chance to win 2010.

Limited government is what the opposition to Obama craves and where the most energy is among the conservative base. Conservatives still care about social issues, but are much more concerned about stopping the outrageous spending being demonstrated Washington, D.C. The opposition building against the president is one that opposes high taxes, out-of-control spending, an increasing deficit, and more government control of the private sector. In this coalition are both conservatives and business-minded independents, who voted for Obama with an understanding that he would be a moderate president. These same independents are giving Chris Christie a chance to unseat incumbent Democratic governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey. In a three-way race that includes Independent candidate Chris Daggett, Jon Corzine is only getting a little over 40% of the vote in a state Pres. Obama received 53% of vote in 2008 and won by a whopping 16 points. The polls on this race are over the place showing Christie up by as much as 6 points and Corzine leading by as many as 4 points. A race like this will all come down to turnout. The GOP has the energy factor with New Jersey having the highest taxes in the nation and an unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent. The Democrats have the ground game and infrastructure and out register Republicans 2-1. However, some anti-Corzine Democrats and moderate Republicans have chosen to swing their support to independent candidate Chris Daggett. Polling has shown that Daggett is taking votes away equally from both parties, so it has turned out to be a two-way race in the days leading up to the election. I predict that Christie will pull off a narrow 2 to 3 point victory as more conservatives will turnout in the state then did for John McCain last year. Also, independents will split towards the challenger with Corzine’s approval ratings hovering around 40%.

If the races go down as expected tomorrow, then both sides will try to spin the results. The GOP will say that it foreshadows a wave election in 2010 that gives Republicans a chance to make big gains in the House & the Senate. The Democrats will say that these races are isolated snapshots of the electorate and are not a referendum on the country’s temperament toward the administration’s policies. Time will tell which side is correct. However, I believe that all of this guessing about 2010 doesn’t matter. These elections matter because if conservatives sweep them, then it will curb Pres. Obama’s big government agenda and should defeat the liberal health care bills currently in Congress. That will be a victory that all conservatives will revel in.

This post and the contents thereof are the views of only the author identified immediately above and do not necessarily represent the views of the New York Young Republican Club, Inc. (the "NYYRC"), its officers or its members. The NYYRC expressly disclaims responsibility for the contents thereof and by its charter documents may not, and does not, endorse any candidate for any office, except in a general election.