Feb
08
The Rudy Giuliani Show – 2008 Edition
ByIf you can’t spend idle time speculating about the 2008 presidential race, then you’re not really doing much with that idle time.
I caught this conglomeration of recent “What-if” presidential polls that puts Giuliani at or near the top of a number of them, competing with John McCain and, to a lesser extent, Newt Gingrich.
Sure it’s over two years away, which is an eternity in politics. And these exercises are little more than popularity contests at this point. But it is fun to speculate and see how everyone else is speculating in return.
This post and the contents thereof are the views of only the author identified immediately above and do not necessarily represent the
views of the New York Young Republican Club, Inc. (the "NYYRC"), its officers or its members. The NYYRC expressly disclaims
responsibility for the contents thereof and by its charter documents may not, and does not, endorse any candidate for any office,
except in a general election.
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5 Comments
February 8th, 2006 at 7:30 pm
Rick,
I personally just like to follow the money. If anyone is interested in seeing the probability of something happening they should go to http://www.tradesports.com The site offers real time betting where you can buy or sell a contract on anything from sports to politics. The way it works is if you think something will happen you buy the contract at the current price, which is the percentage likelihood of it happening. If it plays out correctly the price goes to 100, which equals 100%, if doesn’t happen it goes to 0. You can sell your contract at anytime as the percentage chance of something happening increases or decreases. I’ve been following it since the 2004 election and have been amazed (I first was turned on to it by the Economist) at how accurate it is. They had Bush winning in 2004 the whole way.
Currently under 2008 Republican Pres Nominees they have:
McCain leading with a 31.3% chance
George Allen with 26.6% and Rudy at 13.5%.
Interesting note is that they have Pataki at a 0.8% chance of getting the nod.
For Democrats they have Hillary in the lead with 43.2% and Warner second with 20.2%
February 8th, 2006 at 7:56 pm
I’m a pretty fair handicapper myself when it comes to the big races. I knew Bush was the man in December of ’99, and pegged him to beat Kerry in a close race in ’04.
I’ve made my pick for ’08, too. But I’m not going to divulge it just yet – I don’t want to throw the odds in the toilet for the bookmakers
If you’ve paid any attention to my conversations, you know who I’m talking about.
Suffice to say, my more conservative brethren (read Gail and Tim) will be disappointed, and they’ll debate my wisdom. But to no avail. It’s in the stars, baby.
February 8th, 2006 at 8:27 pm
Hope that works out for you.
I myself don’t believe in trying to reinvent the wheel, as if my Adam Smith quotes didn’t tell you that already. I’m sticking with the money guys.
Some more interesting calls by Tradesports to follow:
Tom Delay found guilty of money laundering: 26.6%
Karl Rove indicted: 10%
Lewis Libby found guilty: 48%
GOP keeping control of Senate in 2006: 88%
GOP keeping control of House in 2006: 75.5%
February 8th, 2006 at 8:57 pm
It’s never failed me before. You follow your money, I’ll follow the pulse of the people and the historical currents, and chances are we’ll meet at the same place.
February 8th, 2006 at 9:14 pm
I’d say your right.
Hell, you could probably be one of those guys making the odds.